U.S. production: Biggest hitters are about to get even bigger

The biggest hitters in the U.S. oilpatch are about to get even bigger.

Based on the anticipated outcome of ongoing M&A deals, the output of the country’s top 20 publicly traded producers will be around 3 million boe/d greater (16%) than just 18 months ago.

Our latest research using Evaluate Energy M&A data – including Devon Energy’s $5 billion acquisition of 100,000 boe/d in the Williston Basin announced this week – plots adjusted output per company based on Q1 production data for acquirers and acquired involved in deals that remain in play, as well as deals already closed.

“Operational integration following a deal can take time so we may not see aggregate output jump immediately for all companies,” said Nikki Zenonos, managing director of Evaluate Energy.

“Production derived from new assets can take time to clearly appear in company results. The trend, however, is noticeably clear especially among the biggest players, while recognizing that most large M&A deals often come with a tail where acquirers re-evaluate portfolios and then deem some assets to be non-core.”

Significant changes in the Top 20 since 2022

ExxonMobil: The $64 billion acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources will contribute around 700,000 boe/d of fresh output, for an adjusted 4.5 million boe/d production rate for ExxonMobil based on Q1 data. The supermajor also completed the purchase of Denbury Inc. boosting production and carbon capture potential.

Chevron: The purchase of DJ-Basin focused PDC Energy and the $60 billion acquisition of Hess Corp. would adjust Chevron’s Q1 production to over 3.7 billion boe/d. Chevron will hope the growth of Hess’ highly valued Guyana assets will fuel further growth.

ConocoPhillips: The $22.5 billion deal to acquire Marathon Oil will take ConocoPhillips closer to 2.5 million boe/d.

Occidental Petroleum: The $12 billion acquisition of CrownRock, a privately held Permian operator, is ongoing and would increase Occidental output to around 1.3 million boe/d based on Q1 data.

Chesapeake Energy: A merger with Southwestern Energy sees the combined company leapfrog gas producing competitors EOG Resources and EQT in the production rankings, despite Chesapeake racking up $3.5 billion in asset sales in the Eagle Ford since the end of 2022.

Diamondback Energy: A stand-out among producers hovering just below 1 million boe/d because of an adjusted production rate that is double 2022 levels. This is mainly due to a $26 billion, 360,000 boe/d acquisition of privately held Endeavor Energy.

Civitas Resources, Permian Resources, Chord Energy and Crescent Energy: All join the top 20 thanks to M&A activity since year-end 2022.

For reference, below is the top 20 U.S-based global producers at year-end 2022.

Evaluate Energy’s M&A database holds every upstream deal worldwide since 2008, allowing daily comparisons of key metrics, corporate valuations, and changes in spending behavior over time. For more on our data, which also includes data on downstream, midstream, service sector and renewable energy M&A activity, click here.

Notes:

Adjusted production: Q1 2024 production for companies with acquisitions that are still in progress or acquisitions that completed after Q1 2024 have been adjusted to account for increased production levels. These production figures do not represent official company guidance. The production added to the affected companies is calculated by using either:

• Q1 2024 production of the public company acquired in corporate mergers, or
• Latest available production reported for any assets or private companies being acquired.